JUST IN: El Niño Could Cause 31,400 Additional Heat-Related Deaths in Nigeria in Six Months
Nigeria could record an estimated 31,400 additional heat-related deaths over the next six months as the effects of El Niño intensify, according to projections by the Climate Impact Lab.
The report estimates that the climate phenomenon could contribute to 66,800 additional deaths across Africa’s Sahel region, with Nigeria accounting for nearly half of the projected toll.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have warned that an unusually strong El Niño could worsen extreme heat, drought and flooding in vulnerable regions.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon could peak towards the end of 2026, potentially disrupting global temperatures and rainfall patterns.
She called on governments and humanitarian organisations to strengthen preparedness by using climate forecasts and early-warning systems to protect vulnerable populations.
Meanwhile, UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that worsening climate conditions could expose about 50 million people to increased hunger, further aggravating food insecurity.
He also cited estimates by the African Development Bank indicating that the crisis could cost African economies between $10 billion and $20 billion and reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by between one and two per cent.
Globally, the Climate Impact Lab projects that El Niño could contribute to approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during its first nine months, from June to February, with countries in the Global South expected to bear a disproportionate share of the impact.
The projections highlight growing concerns about the human and economic costs of extreme heat, particularly in countries where vulnerable communities have limited access to cooling facilities, reliable healthcare and climate-resilient infrastructure.
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