IMF Projects Nigeria’s Economic Growth at 4.3% in 2027, Warns of Rising Poverty Risks

IMF Projects Nigeria’s Economic Growth at 4.3% in 2027, Warns of Rising Poverty Risks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2027, up from an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2026, while warning that persistently high prices of essential goods could deepen poverty and worsen food insecurity.

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the Fund forecast that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth would rise from 4.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.2 per cent in 2026 before reaching 4.3 per cent in 2027.

The projection points to a gradual strengthening of economic activity over the three-year period, although the pace of growth remains dependent on broader economic conditions and the extent to which ongoing reforms translate into increased productivity and improved household welfare.

The IMF also expects inflationary pressures to ease, projecting consumer price inflation to decline from 23.0 per cent in 2025 to 15.6 per cent in 2026 and 14.7 per cent in 2027.

The anticipated slowdown in inflation suggests that the rate at which prices increase could moderate over the coming years. However, it does not necessarily mean that the prices of food, transportation and other essential goods will return to previous levels.

For millions of Nigerians already grappling with rising living costs, the distinction remains significant, as slower inflation may offer limited relief if household incomes fail to keep pace with the cost of meeting basic needs.

The Fund warned that elevated prices for essential commodities could intensify existing economic hardship, leaving vulnerable households exposed to poverty and food insecurity despite improvements in headline economic indicators.

Food affordability remains particularly important, as increases in the cost of staple foods can force low-income families to reduce consumption, compromise dietary quality or divert limited resources from healthcare, education and other essential expenses.

The outlook also highlights the challenge of ensuring that economic growth translates into tangible improvements in living standards. While stronger GDP growth can support investment, employment and government revenue, its impact on poverty depends partly on how widely the benefits are distributed across households and economic sectors.

For Nigeria, the challenge will be to sustain economic expansion while improving purchasing power, strengthening food security and creating opportunities for households and businesses to withstand persistent cost pressures.

The IMF’s projections therefore present a mixed outlook: economic growth is expected to strengthen and inflation to moderate, but these improvements may not be sufficient to ease the burden on Nigerians without more affordable essential goods and stronger household incomes.

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